Why Trump is here to Stay
There is a natural human tendency to believe that the outcome one hopes for is more likely than the one we deem to be undesirable. This goes for sports fans adamant that their own team’s victory is certain, and to every individual convinced of their own exceptionalism. Everyone believes, not what can be empirically proven, but what they want to be true. This is as much the case with politics as it is with every other facet of life and as a result many of those who wish to see Trump out of office cling to the hope that the allegations around Russia which seem to increase in their potency with each passing day will result in Trumps deposition from the office of the presidency. In all likelihood however this idea that Trumps impeachment is a foregone conclusion is little more than a fantasy. There are three major reasons why Trumps impeachment is highly unlikely.
- It is not yet confirmed that Trump was directly involved in collusion with Russia
The allegations regarding collusion between Russia and the Trump campaign while substantial and implicating a number of Trumps key advisors in the white house have yet to directly involve Trump engaging with Russian operatives in order to gain advantage in the 2016 election. While some officials close to Trump such as his son and Jared Kushner among others may have their access to classified information and even position at the white house revoked there is no guarantee that the allegations around them will implicate Trump directly, which would allow Trump to plead ignorance if other white house officials are reprimanded for colluding with Russia.
2. Impeaching Trump would require a majority in the house and a supermajority in the senate
The way that impeachment works is that the house takes a vote on the articles of impeachment, if one of the articles passes then the case moves forward to the senate where after what amounts to a trial the Senate would be forced to vote on the president's guilt. Therefore Trump’s impeachment would require a majority in the house and supermajority in the senate. However both these bodies are currently under republican control which makes the prospect of republicans impeaching a president of their own party unpalatable. Even in a best case scenario for the democrats the odds of them winning back both houses in the 2018 election are rather slim, the prospect of a democratic supermajority is even more unlikely.
3. Impeaching Trump would not necessarily benefit democrats.
The antics of Donald Trump and the heavy negative associations with him give the democrats plenty of ammunition with which to bombard the republican party. As a result having him out of office and replaced with a (presumably) less childish and mentally unstable Mike Pence would not necessarily be the boon to the democratic party many would expect. While currently they could plausibly use opposition to Trump to drum up support for the 2020 democratic presidential campaign if Trump was gone it would likely be more difficult to defeat Mike Pence or another republican candidate.